776
FXUS63 KICT 241206
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
706 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST KS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 1 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF BETTER 700-500 MB
MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY STATIONARY ALTHOUGH THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS AT SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE PAST
HOUR. AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BOTH THE 850 MB AND
700 MB JETS SHOULD SLOWLY NUDGE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ASSIST THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ALSO MOVE
TO THE EAST AND INTO OUR CWA. MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS
WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL
AS HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT WILL DRASTICALLY AFFECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MORNING ACTIVITY MAY STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS LEAVING EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTAPPED AND HENCE SURFACE INSTABILITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS MAY
REINVIGORATE THE MORNING CLUSTER OR LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SCENARIO
DOES COME TO FRUITION, THEN VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER, IF MORNING CONVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THEN INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE MEAGER AND
AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE MUCH LESS LIKELY UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW THIS AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS SO
SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EITHER WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT UP TO PING PONG BALL
SIZED. THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.
A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE U.S. WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRANSITION OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY, THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT BY SATURDAY EVENING A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM OKLAHOMA BUT SHOULD
ONLY IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN MOST ROW OF COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY,
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS KANSAS WHICH WILL
ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL SEND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE REGION
AND FLOW WILL ALSO BE MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE HENCE
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS OR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHOWER AND STORM COMPLEX OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AFTER A LULL IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...WI
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