754
FXUS63 KICT 250811
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY, AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING:
AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN CONCERT WITH A DEEP
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING
POCKETS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS KANSAS.
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND/OR EXIT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, AS LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
TRAINING CELLS MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL BY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT--SUNDAY MORNING:
STRENGTHENING DEEP WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH SUBTLE
RIPPLES IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. THE MARGINAL
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS. THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED COOLISH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING:
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SHARPENS A DRYLINE OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. EVEN THOUGH THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN WELL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A WEAKLY CAPPED TO
UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITHIN THE BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS UNLIKELY GIVEN MID/UPPER RIDGING AND
THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION WELL WEST, THE WEAKLY TO UNCAPPED AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AFTER 4-5PM, ESPECIALLY IF A SUBTLE PRE-DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, STRONG INSTABILITY IN
CONCERT WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.
LATE MONDAY--MONDAY NIGHT:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MAGNITUDE OF
BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN SURROUNDING DEGREE OF DRYLINE CONVERGENCE
AND ASSOCIATED STORM COVERAGE, ALONG WITH STORM MODE GIVEN MID/UPPER
FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR MORE OF A MESSY STORM MODE AND CUT INTO "HIGHER-END"
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.
TUESDAY--THURSDAY:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS THE EARLY WEEK
FRONTAL ZONE ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
ADDITIONAL WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
FINER DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
EXPECTING HIT-OR-MISS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THERE ARE THREE LOCATIONS WE'RE CURRENTLY WATCHING FOR STORMS:
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70, A
CLUSTER APPROACHING FROM WESTERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND A CLUSTER
OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THINKING
RSL HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, SO INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT RSL. SLN AND GBD HAVE SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES, SO
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THOSE SITES. LEFT SHOWER/STORM
MENTION OUT OF ICT-HUT-CNU TAFS FOR NOW, AS CHANCES ARE LOWER
FOR THOSE SITES.
ADDITIONALLY, THINKING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS
A COLD FRONT OOZES SLOWLY SOUTH. FURTHERMORE, THINKING THERE ARE
DECENT CHANCES FOR IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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