866
FXUS63 KICT 260518
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED.
- SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE FOR THE WED INTO THU MORNING TIME
FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN MCV TRACKING THROUGH THE OZARK
REGION WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A MORE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF OF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA AND STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCNU INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY WITH CAMS, IN EVENING STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO AN MCS AND TRACKING ACROSS OK, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ANOTHER MCV.
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ON SAT, WITH ACTIVITY GETTING INTO
OUR WESTERN FRINGES GENERALLY AROUND 15Z. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE MCS/MCV SOUTH OF THE OK/KS BORDER, SO
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW WITH PRECIP SAT. ANY STORMS WOULD NOT
BE SURFACED BASED AND LIKELY NOT SEVERE. THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST KS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA
NOT SEEING MUCH SAT AFTERNOON.
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA SAT EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL SETUP RETURN FLOW
AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SAT NIGHT
AS THE MCV MOVES INTO THE OZARK REGION AND ALSO FEEL THAT
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE A CHANCE DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET
PROCESSES. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY OF STRONG RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND BETTER UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION, BETTER LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LOOKS TO
GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT.
WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT BY 12Z MON, WITH ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE OTHER DIGGING
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL PUSH A
DRYLINE INTO THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DRYLINE
SLIGHTLY EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
AGREEMENT THAT THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AFTER 00Z TUE, BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST. STILL THINK THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MON AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, BUT STILL
THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TO GET A COUPLE STORMS MAINLY OVER
FLINT HILLS. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS MON NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY GO SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SRH.
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG-UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK
ON TUE WHICH MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND SOUTHEAST KS
TUE INTO TUE EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON LIFTING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WED AND
ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THIS PANS OUT,
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION OVER TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS SITES. STILL THINKING BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL LIE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
SO MAINTAINED VCTS AT HUT AND ICT ALONG WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT GBD,
RSL, AND SLN, WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS REMAINS. WINDS LOOK
TO STAY EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
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