137
FXUS63 KICT 101723
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
- SIGNS POINTING TO THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY MORNING, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO THE LOW-80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SHUNT THE CUTOFF LOW
NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RETURN
BY MIDWEEK. AS THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT, A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SHUNTING A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE, IF ANY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEYOND
THURSDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG MID TO LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EMERGING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW HIGHS CLOUDS FOR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. E/NE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING LATE SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF THE E/SE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...AMD
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