204
FXUS63 KICT 101929
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK, WITH A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND.
- SIGNS POINTING TO THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MID-LATE
WEEK, AS LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGING ENCROACHES ON MID-AMERICA, AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE HEARTLAND. A STAGNANT UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH MAY BRUSH EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY, BUT STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPPER 80S AND 90S ON WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.
AS WE TAKE A LOOK AHEAD FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING OFF-AND-ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION,
AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THE BASE OF A PAIR OF WESTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGHS EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUPPORTS HEFTY
COMBINATIONS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT TIMES LATE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH GETS OUR ATTENTION FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT
REGARDING TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMPLITUDE/MAGNITUDE OF VARIOUS
SYNOPTIC FEATURES, WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS
IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW HIGHS CLOUDS FOR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. E/NE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING LATE SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF THE E/SE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
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