588
FXUS63 KICT 111135
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY MORNING, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER-70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO THE LOW-80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH- CENTRAL KS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SHUNT THE CUTOFF LOW
NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK. AS THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT, A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
SHUNTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE, IF
ANY, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEYOND
THURSDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG MID TO LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGING TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE PERIOD
IS LIKELY TO RETURN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 7-11 KT BY LATE
MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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