967
FXUS63 KICT 112008
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND.
- POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY (CONDITIONAL, ISOLATED), BUT
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AS UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA. A STAGNANT UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WHICH MAY BRUSH EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY, BUT STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FURTHER EAST.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPPER 80S AND 90S ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BY THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135, AS A
DRYLINE SHARPENS AND AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH GLANCES
THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER, SUSPECT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL PROVE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, GIVEN ONLY MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND MAJORITY OF
UPPER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
FORM, STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
AS WE TAKE A LOOK AHEAD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING OFF-AND-ON POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION,
AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THE BASE OF A PAIR OF WESTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGHS EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SUPPORTS HEFTY COMBINATIONS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
WHICH GETS OUR ATTENTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS FAR OUT REGARDING
TIMING, LOCATION, AND AMPLITUDE/MAGNITUDE OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC
FEATURES, WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
MONDAY, WITH ONLY CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS TICK
UP ABOVE 10 KTS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
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