639
FXUS63 KICT 121103
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO EMERGE NEXT WEEKEND,
BRINGING MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY MORNING, IT'S A RINSE AND REPEAT IN REGARDS TO THE
ONGOING MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS PARKED
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. THE NOTABLE CHANGE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AXIS. ITS ARRIVAL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TRANSITIONING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AXIS, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT FROM EASTERN CO THROUGH NORTHERN KS
AND EASTERN NE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, UNFORTUNATELY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, A PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. BEYOND THURSDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
AGREEMENT AMONG MID TO LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE-
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS ACTIVE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO RETURN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST EPS AND GEFS CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES POINT TO SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY FOR THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY LATE MORNING AT RSL, GBD,
SLN, AND HUT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT AT ICT AND
CNU THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 93 94 (2018)
SALINA 92 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 89 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
CLIMATE...BRF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page