477
FXUS63 KICT 121733
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO EMERGE NEXT WEEKEND,
BRINGING MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY MORNING, IT'S A RINSE AND REPEAT IN REGARDS TO THE
ONGOING MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS PARKED
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. THE NOTABLE CHANGE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH AXIS. ITS ARRIVAL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE CUTOFF LOW
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TRANSITIONING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AXIS, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT FROM EASTERN CO THROUGH NORTHERN KS
AND EASTERN NE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, UNFORTUNATELY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, A PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. BEYOND THURSDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
AGREEMENT AMONG MID TO LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE-
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS ACTIVE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO RETURN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST EPS AND GEFS CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES POINT TO SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY FOR THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING LIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE AREA AS WE
MOVE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 93 94 (2018)
SALINA 92 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 89 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...BRF
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