179
FXUS63 KICT 122327
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS A MID/UPPER WAVE
ARRIVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MOST OF KANSAS AS A SURFACE LOW EXITS
TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DRYLINE/PAC FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEBRASKA, AND WHILE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, ABOVE-NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THOUGH MODELS LARGELY CARRY VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
NOW, CURRENT THINKING IS HIGHS COULD OVERPERFORM AND REACH THE MID
90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-135, WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS-
OKLAHOMA BORDER APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW CLEAR
SKIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 95 94 (2018)
SALINA 95 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 87 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK
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