613
FXUS63 KICT 130351
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS A MID/UPPER WAVE
ARRIVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MOST OF KANSAS AS A SURFACE LOW EXITS
TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DRYLINE/PAC FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEBRASKA, AND WHILE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, ABOVE-NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THOUGH MODELS LARGELY CARRY VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
NOW, CURRENT THINKING IS HIGHS COULD OVERPERFORM AND REACH THE MID
90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-135, WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS-
OKLAHOMA BORDER APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE
WEEKEND, WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.
LEE TROUGHING IS SLOWLY STARTING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE
ARE EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER 15Z TUE WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE LIKELY AT MOST SITES. WHILE WE MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL STAY AT VFR LEVELS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 95 94 (2018)
SALINA 95 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 87 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page