831
FXUS63 KICT 131135
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO EMERGE THIS WEEKEND,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS; SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY MORNING, THE STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. FURTHER WEST, A TROUGH AXIS HAS COME
ASHORE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN CO THROUGH CENTRAL ND. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TRANSITIONING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO EJECT FROM EASTERN CO THROUGH NORTHERN KS AND EASTERN NE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK WILL
UNFORTUNATELY KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BEYOND THURSDAY,
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE OVERLAP OF
MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME. THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED VIA EPS AND GEFS SEVERE CONVECTION
PROBABILITIES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KT BY 02Z. THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 93 94 (2018)
SALINA 93 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 91 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page