199
FXUS63 KICT 132019
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS;
POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SEVERE STORMS TOO
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
CURRENTLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO MANITOBA, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN OUR
AREA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF
OUR AREA. ON THURSDAY MORNING, A DRYLINE WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. TRANSITIONING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASES IN INSTABILITY. FORECAST
UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME, STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHILE
VFR PREVAILS. A FEW CUMULUS AROUND 5K FT MAY IMPACT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO
THE CHANUTE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST IN TO
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CIGS/PATCHY FOG
IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL KS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST
AXIS TOWARD MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING OUR
CENTRAL KS TAF LOCATIONS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 94 94 (2018)
SALINA 94 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 88 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC/JWK
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...GC/JWK
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