878
FXUS63 KICT 140347
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS;
POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SEVERE STORMS TOO
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
CURRENTLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO MANITOBA, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN OUR
AREA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF
OUR AREA. ON THURSDAY MORNING, A DRYLINE WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. TRANSITIONING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASES IN INSTABILITY. FORECAST
UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME, STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL
EARLY WED MORNING.
STILL LOOKING FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY FOG TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY AFTER 10Z WEST OF I-135 WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON FOG AND IFR CIGS, BUT STILL FEEL THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR AT KGBD, KRSL
AND KHUT. WHILE CIGS SHOULD COME UP AFTER 15Z WED, WE SHOULD AT
LEAST KEEP SOME LOW VFR CIGS IN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MAY 14TH:
SITE: FORECAST: RECORD:
WICHITA 94 94 (2018)
SALINA 94 101 (1941)
CHANUTE 88 91 (2022)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC/JWK
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page