098
FXUS63 KICT 151900
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
200 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO EMERGE THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING MULTIPLE RAIN AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI ON
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND EAST TEXAS. WESTERLY WINDS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES (THOUGH STILL ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) HAVE FOLLOWED IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE ARRIVAL OF SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AND STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATE SATURDAY EVENING THRU SUNDAY MORNING:
STRONG WAA ROOTED AROUND 850 MB IS PROGGED TO COMMENCE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND WITH
ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE, SEVERE
HAIL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGEST
THE BEST COVERAGE PRIMARILY EAST OF I-135.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ASSOCIATED DRYLINE - WHICH MOST MODELS
PROG TO SETUP OVER WEST/CENTRAL KANSAS - WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DETAILS REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER, SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP, ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY (> 2000 J/KG) AND IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS HEADING INTO
THE EVENING.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY:
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHARP
DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. ONCE AGAIN, AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE IN PLAY FOR SEVERE STORMS, AND
MODELS NOW HINT AT FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENCROACHES ON THE AREA. AS SUCH,
THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SPECIFICS CONTINUE TO BE UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 15Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...GC
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