729
FXUS63 KICT 311720
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON-EVENING WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CHALLENGES:
1) COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON-EVE
2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
CHANGES:
1) TIMING/PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY
2) INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY
3) PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
IT WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 80S. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
SHOULD STAY DRY, BUT A MID LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK FRONT TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL RESULT
IN 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY; THEY CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE ABOVE SYSTEM/FRONT AND
PEAK HEATING THUS INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE TO 30-40%
CHANCES. THE EXACT LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT AND RESPECTIVE COVERAGE
ARE SOME OF THE CHALLENGES. THERE COULD BE A CAP INITIALLY WHICH
SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THE WAVE COMING DOWN
AS PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED; THE TIMING IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INDICATE
SURFACE CAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35KTS.
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS, POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH 60-70 MPH DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
RISK ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THEIR
OVERNIGHT UPDATE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK
THROUGH AT AROUND 20-25 MPH REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING;
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR GIVEN MODERATE TO BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SATURATED SURFACES. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS, REMEMBER WHEN THUNDER ROARS TO GO INDOORS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS
WILL MAKE WAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S INTO MONDAY; DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD START LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THEN TRACKING EAST. AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, THIS
WILL SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING OF TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD DIMINISH THE SEVERE
STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT THE IMPACT WOULD BE PLUS
THERE COULD BE CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF ANY OF THE ELEMENTS TO
SHIFT THE POTENTIAL IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED IN UPCOMING ISSUANCES. AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND LASTS INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S
THEN RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WARM AIR ALOFT MY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY IF AT ALL. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING ONE PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LOW
BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR AWARENESS. THE FRONT HAS MADE IT
THROUGH KRSL AND KGBD THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS TO KRSL
AND PERHAPS EVEN KGBD NOW. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. THERE'S
SOME HINT OF LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR KCNU BY 09Z BUT WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY DECIDED NOT INCLUDE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...SGS
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