736
FXUS63 KICT 312231
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING WHICH COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THOUGHTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAIN MOSTLY ON TRACK
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. SO WHILE WE ARE GETTING SOME LIFT WITH THE FRONT AS
IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA (AS OF 3 PM THE FRONT WAS
LOCATED FROM NEAR PRATT TO EMPORIA), TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN
WARM HENCE DEVELOPMENT HAS STRUGGLED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CAP REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL, SO MORE ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND TRAILING WIND SHIFT CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ESPECIALLY AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE INCREASES. DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW LEADING TO A DRY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 80S. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA OVERHEAD
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING HENCE THE SKY MAY APPEAR
HAZY. FOR ANY POTENTIAL AURORA VIEWING TOMORROW NIGHT, SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS HOWEVER THE SMOKE WILL
LINGER WHICH WILL MAKE IT EVEN MORE CHALLENGING TO SEE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH IS A SIGN OF A
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF US. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE
ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST AND SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR TUESDAY REMAINS IN
QUESTION AS WAA MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WHICH MUDDIES THE PICTURE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER IN
THE DAY ALTHOUGH THAT POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S. UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WARM AIR ALOFT MY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY IF AT ALL. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING ONE PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LOW
BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR AWARENESS. THE FRONT HAS MADE IT
THROUGH KRSL AND KGBD THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS TO KRSL
AND PERHAPS EVEN KGBD NOW. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. THERE'S
SOME HINT OF LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR KCNU BY 09Z BUT WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY DECIDED NOT INCLUDE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...SGS
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