534
FXUS63 KICT 011133
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING:
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE EXITING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
MONDAY EVENING--TUESDAY EVENING:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, AS A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN
BAJA COAST PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION, IN CONCERT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LOW, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND MID/UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO SUPPORT POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER, EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SINCE SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL,
RISES IN RIVERS/STREAMS ARE LIKELY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
LEVELS REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A LOW-PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN SETTING UP MID/LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH OFF-AND-
ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
CULPRITS WILL BE VARIOUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING OVER
THE REGION, AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND A
WOBBLY WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS COULD POSE A THREAT. STAY TUNED AS WE
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S-70S. A SLOW WARM UP BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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