135
FXUS63 KICT 020451
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS SQUARELY IN PLACE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER A HAZE
WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. THIS SMOKE MAY MAKE
SPOTTING THE AURORA EVEN MORE CHALLENGING TONIGHT, FOR THOSE
THAT TRY TO CATCH IT. LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE REGION. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER AND MID 80S ACROSS THE
REST OF OUR AREA. THE FIRST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOMORROW EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WAA ADVECTION
RAMPS UP. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES, SO HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF OUR STILL SATURATED
SOILS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT WILL DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. OUR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE PATTERN
GOING WITH MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SO WHILE
IT WON'T RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SLOWLY REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. INTRODUCED
A PROB30 GROUP AT GBD AND RSL FOR POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO IMPACT THOSE TERMINALS AFTER 3Z. THE BEST CHANCES ARRIVE
AFTER 6Z TUESDAY FOR THE REMAINING SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...BRF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page