287
FXUS63 KICT 021735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE THIS EVENING, PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS.
- ADDITIONAL OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING:
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION, IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY, WEAK TO
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND HEFTY DOWNDRAFT CAPE, THINKING A
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF MOSTLY
50-70 MPH WINDS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (LIKELY NO LARGER THAN
GOLFBALL SIZE GIVEN MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR). THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE THIS EVENING-TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS, AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING FROM ROUGHLY
THE KS TURNPIKE ON EAST-SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND MID/UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED
FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING FROM ROUGHLY
THE KS TURNPIKE ON EAST-SOUTHEAST. SINCE SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, RISES IN RIVERS/STREAMS ARE
LIKELY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVELS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD WATCH WAS DISCUSSED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, BUT THE CONSENSUS WAS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A LOW-PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN SETTING UP BY MID TO LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OFF-
AND-ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
CULPRITS WILL BE VARIOUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING OVER
THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A WOBBLY FRONTAL ZONE, AMIDST
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS. A SEASONABLE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OFF-AND-ON SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, WITH ANOMALOUS PWS SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE
FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S BEHIND THE FRONT, AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
A SLOW WARM UP BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH OFF-AND-ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
LIKELY PREVENTING WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TURNING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH AND BRINGING POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
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