282
FXUS63 KICT 022319
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE SPINNING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING IS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER WESTERN KS AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH
MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
AROUND OR AFTER 03Z, REACHING I-135 AROUND 05Z. MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE. BY 18Z TUE, COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ALONG OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AND WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE AFTER 18Z. WHILE SOME HAIL IN THE NICKEL TO QUARTER
SIZE RANGE COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LACK OF SHEAR, THE MAIN
THREATS ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIKE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
BY 12Z WED, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA. THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNER REGION ON WED AND OUT
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES WED EVENING. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THU EVENING WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING-UP AND FOCUSING INTO
SOUTHERN KS, WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE PLAINS LOOK TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER STORM CHANCES GENERALLY OVER WESTERN KS AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING
FOR BELOW NORMAL READINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOKING THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL KS TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 02-03Z
WHILE IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND 03-04Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
(MVFR/IFR) WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUE AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ053-069>072-092>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...TOP
AVIATION...MWM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page