081
FXUS63 KICT 030820
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
- ADDITIONAL OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
SURROUNDING FINER DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, AMIDST A MOIST AND WEAKLY/UNCAPPED
AIRMASS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
BUT THINKING GREATER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE, AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT (60-70 MPH WINDS) WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL (LIKELY NO LARGER THAN HALF-DOLLARS) DUE TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY. ANY HAIL THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE EARLIER IN THE EVENT BEFORE
NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS ENCOURAGES MOSTLY UPSCALE GROWTH.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND MID/UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO SUPPORT AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING
FROM ROUGHLY THE KS TURNPIKE ON EAST-SOUTHEAST. 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS
(E.G. GREATER THAN 3-4 INCHES) ARE UNLIKELY THOUGH GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING
NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, SINCE SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY SATURATED FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, RISES IN RIVERS/STREAMS ARE LIKELY, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVELS REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD, WITH NO PLANS OF EXPANDING
AT THIS TIME.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW-PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN SETTING UP BY MID TO LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OFF-AND-ON CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CULPRITS WILL BE VARIOUS
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH A WOBBLY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION,
AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS. A SEASONABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OFF-AND-ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, WITH THE
ANOMALOUS PWS SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY IN WAKE
OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S LIKELY. A SLOW WARM UP BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH OFF-AND-ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY
PREVENTING WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THUNDERSTORMS AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING BACK TO VFR IN CENTRAL KS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ053-069>072-092>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
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