208
FXUS63 KICT 041133
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES ARE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING:
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HOWEVER, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING AND NIL INSTABILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 0.10” FOR MOST, WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON CURRENT FLOODING CONCERNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY:
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AMIDST
AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND RETURNING DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS TARGETS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400), ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SUBSET OF MODELS FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION (ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 56). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE WHEREVER THESE
STORMS MANAGE TO TRACK, WHICH WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING SATURATED SOILS AND
RIVER FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, MODEST INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST
DETAILS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY:
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING MAINLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST-SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, POSSIBLY ONLY CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ONE FINAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT SURROUNDING FINER DETAILS, STAY TUNED.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA. THEREAFTER,
RETURNING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY
THURSDAY-FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT FINER DETAILS ARE RATHER VAGUE THIS FAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES:
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL
WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS
POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
READINGS WARMING THEREAFTER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND MIDDAY TODAY, WITH LOW VFR
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
THE CNU TAF SITE, WITH ALL OTHER TAF SITES LIKELY
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK/TOP
AVIATION...ADK/TOP
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