432
FXUS63 KICT 041941
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
241 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, RESULTING IN WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
CAN PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH VERY WEAK LIFT AND NO INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN OUR AREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL WITH MOST ENSEMBLES SHOWING LESS THAN
0.05” OF RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
ON THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AT THE SURFACE HELPING
DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
COMES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING 700MB WAA, PROVIDING
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING, INSTABILITY ALSO
INCREASES WITH VALUES OF MUCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG,
THOUGH THE RAP AND NAM HAVE VALUES CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG. QPF IS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1” OF RAINFALL WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75”,
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS TO OKLAHOMA WHERE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE FAVORABLE, MAKING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH THERE IS STILL MODEL
DISCREPANCY, SO STAY TUNED WITH FORECAST UPDATES.
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AN ADDITIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN. THESE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY STAY WEST AND
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY SOUTHERN KANSAS CLIPPING THE
EDGE OF IT.
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, FLOW ALOFT WILL START
TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY, THOUGH IT
WON’T LAST AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD FRONT, AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH, KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT CNU THROUGH 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF/TOP
AVIATION...BRF/TOP
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