107
FXUS63 KICT 050548
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, RESULTING IN WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
CAN PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH VERY WEAK LIFT AND NO INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS IN OUR AREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL WITH MOST ENSEMBLES SHOWING LESS THAN
0.05” OF RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
ON THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AT THE SURFACE HELPING
DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
COMES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING 700MB WAA, PROVIDING
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING, INSTABILITY ALSO
INCREASES WITH VALUES OF MUCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG,
THOUGH THE RAP AND NAM HAVE VALUES CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG. QPF IS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1” OF RAINFALL WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75”,
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS TO OKLAHOMA WHERE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE FAVORABLE, MAKING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH THERE IS STILL MODEL
DISCREPANCY, SO STAY TUNED WITH FORECAST UPDATES.
ON FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AN ADDITIONAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN. THESE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY STAY WEST AND
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH POSSIBLY SOUTHERN KANSAS CLIPPING THE
EDGE OF IT.
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, FLOW ALOFT WILL START
TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY, THOUGH IT
WON’T LAST AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD FRONT, AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH, KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
NEAR MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW-CLOUD COVER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE,
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO WESTERN KANSAS AS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. CONCERNS ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO
15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page