732
FXUS63 KICT 051721
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, MOST NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE ONGOING
FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO, STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL AND
WIND THREAT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AREAWIDE.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY:
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY
IS NON- EXISTENT, AND COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHRINK WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 0.10" TO 0.20".
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
ON CURRENT FLOODING CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE, PERSISTENT DEEP WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SUPPORT
HIT-OR-MISS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY:
THE APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AMIDST RETURNING DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, LIKELY MOST NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND NOSE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TARGET SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400), ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SMALL SUBSET OF
GUIDANCE FAVORING A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION (ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 56). HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER) IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS, WHICH WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING
SATURATED SOILS AND RIVER FLOODING. CONSEQUENTLY, WILL HOIST A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER,
WITH THE DAY SHIFT POSSIBLY EXPANDING THE WATCH ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES NORTH TODAY.
FURTHERMORE, MODEST INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND 50-65 MPH WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY:
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
SOUTHERN KS FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STAY TUNED.
ONE FINAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AREAWIDE, AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING
DAYS.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH OF NEXT WEEK, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO MID-AMERICA. THEREAFTER, RETURNING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT FINER DETAILS ARE RATHER VAGUE THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF
THE TERMINALS WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. THE NEXT BATCH OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AFTER 20Z. INTRODUCED A
PROB30 GROUP AT GBD, RSL, AND SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS
AND MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ091>093-098-099.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF
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