144
FXUS63 KICT 210815
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR SUNDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKER UPPER IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING IS SITUATED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
EASTERN CO.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING REMAINS IN
PLACE. JUST LIKE SATURDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO BE OVER CENTRAL KS, WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WE WILL REPEAT THESE SAME CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY MAKING IT FURTHER
EAST AND COULD AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT
HILLS. WIND ADVISORY THE DAY SHIFT ISSUED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL GO
AHEAD AND RUN WITH ANOTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ONE FOR SUNDAY GETS EXPANDED A BIT EAST WITH
LATER FORECASTS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
100 ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND MID 90S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR HEAT INDICES AREA WIDE TO BE AROUND 100
WITH BETWEEN 102-104 POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY, THEY WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE SAME READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY, UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
IMPULSE IS THEN FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME A WEAKER IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL CA. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO SAG
INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS FOR MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPING-UP MON NIGHT
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. WILL LINGER SOME
SMALL STORM CHANCES FOR TUE INTO WED AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, STORM CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FOR WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT MID/UPPER
FLOW, NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LLWS AT ALL SITES WILL GRADUALLY END BY 13-14Z WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BY MID MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS AREAWIDE UP TO 30-35 KTS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KS.
GUSTS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN STRONGER THAN 30 KTS
AFTER SUNDOWN TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
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