064
FXUS63 KICT 220506
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS.
- RAIN CHANCES COULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS CREEPING
ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WITH A POWERFUL UPPER
JET BLASTING OVER THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT,
PERSISTENT BROAD PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH A STOUT
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAVE CREATED QUITE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, DEEP
MIXING AS A RESULT OF POTENT DIURNAL HEARTING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS (BEFORE
SUNSET) WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. DESPITE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER THAN NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS
DURING THE DAY. A REPEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE GREEN VEGETATION AND MOIST SOILS, THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO OF SMALL SPOT FIRES IN
DRY AGRICULTURAL FIELDS FROM THE RECENT WHEAT HARVESTS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST, BE SURE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AROUND ANY DRY
VEGETATION AS THESE STRONG WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
SMALL WILDFIRES TO OCCUR.
A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS CERTAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. A LOBE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK RIGHT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS'S NEXT TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL
AID IN USHERING IN DEEP AND RICH EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. WITH A BIT OF A NUDGE
FROM PERTURBATIONS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN THIRDS OF KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE BEING HALTED BY VERY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. STILL ANY LOCATION
THAT DOES SEE RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MODERATE, IF NOT HEAVY,
RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL OVER 1.5". AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THE PATTERN HOLDS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.
TOWARDS MID-WEEK, DETAILS START TO GET A BIT FUZZY AS THE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES WITH BOTH THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE EASTERN
RIDGE FORECAST TO WEAKEN. DESPITE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER FLOW
ALOFT, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SUITES CONTINUE
TO BE FAIRLY KEEN ON A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CURRENT LLWS WILL END AT ALL SITES BY 13Z, WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AT MOST SITES AND UP TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE AT RSL.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JWK
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