404
FXUS63 KICT 221115
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 55 MPH RANGE WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY,
BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
- INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN AND GREAT BASIN WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH THE 45-50
MPH GUSTS NOT ONLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL KS, BUT WILL AFFECT ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT HILLS. SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH AND BY MON AFTERNOON WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL KS. WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS, STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS. WE ARE LOOKING FOR AROUND 2,000-2,500J/KG OF CAPE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, SHEAR LOOKS VERY LIMITED.
SO THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DOWNBURST WINDS AS
SHEAR LOOKS LIMITED FOR HAIL. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN
PLACE AND 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CA BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK IT INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BETTER SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES INTO
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME SMALL STORM CHANCES
AROUND FOR THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT IN SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT NOTHING LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 43KT RANGE, WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS
EXPECTED AT KHUT-KSLN-KRSL-KGBD. WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO
DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS HIGH THAT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page