253
FXUS63 KICT 230403
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1103 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
- STORM CHANCES COULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A POTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS TRANSLATING OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AS IT ROUNDS A LARGE, AND STRENGTHENING
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO & TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH, THE SURFACE RESPONSE FROM
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS, ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SUPPORT 40 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS, THESE STRONG
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS THIS
AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A NARROW REGION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES UNCAPPED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH
AND WEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO
SNEAK INTO RUSSELL COUNTY BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH
DCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG, GUSTY WINDS AROUND 50-60 MPH WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO A REGION OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NEAR 9 C/KM). THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE.
A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS SET TO BUILD OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOBE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL TRANSPORT
HIGH QUALITY MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, HIGH PLAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH LIFT FROM
A PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG A SAGGING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PARKED OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND DCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF 55 TO 65 MPH WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER, WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNDER 20 KNOTS) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
REPORTS OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY,
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A COUPLE OF LANDSPOUTS DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LASTLY, PWATS ARE GOING TO BE OVER 1.75"
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. IT'S LIKELY THAT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS A
RESULT. AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES, AND RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS
CREEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA, THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE LIKELY TO MISS OUT ON RAINFALL
MONDAY NIGHT. A SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, EXCEPT
THE FOCUS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS. CAN'T RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SNEAK NEAR THE
VICINITY OF I-70 TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BUT MID/UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS AT BAY.
TOWARDS MID-WEEK, DETAILS START TO GET A BIT FUZZY AS PATTERN
DEAMPLIFIES WITH BOTH THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE EASTERN RIDGE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. DESPITE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY KEEN
ON A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN KANSAS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE NEBULOUS BY THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS APPROXIMATELY 2,000 FT AGL
WILL REMAIN AROUND 50TS MOST OF THE NIGHT SO LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS WILL COME TO
AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING BUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AT RSL, GBD, SLN, AND PERHAPS HUT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...WI
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