379
FXUS63 KICT 230827
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DOWNBURST WINDS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE MAIN THREATS.
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CA. MEANWHILE, STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH, AND BY 18Z IS EXPECTED
TO STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE CORNER OF SOUTHWEST
KS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR CAPE
VALUES IN THE 2,000-3,000J/KG RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. SHEAR PROFILES STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE SO FEEL THAT HAIL PRODUCTION WILL BE LIMITED, WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION, WE ARE
LOOKING FOR PW VALUES TO BE AROUND 175-200% OF NORMAL, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF FLOODING. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES.
BY TUE AFTERNOON, FRONT WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
AND AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER IMPULSE OVER CA, WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIFT THE BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED. LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING, UPPER ENERGY
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WITH
LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS, CONFIDENCE IN STORMS ISN'T AS HIGH
AS THEY ARE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE WEEKEND, MEAN UPPER FLOW WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THERE IS SOME DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A FEW WEAK UPPER
PERTURBATIONS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT OF NM AND INTO WESTERN KS BY
SAT. THIS MAY KEEP SOME ISO ACTIVITY AROUND, BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE, WILL NOT HIT TOO HARD AT THIS
TIME. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
STARTING THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS APPROXIMATELY 2,000 FT AGL
WILL REMAIN AROUND 50TS MOST OF THE NIGHT SO LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS WILL COME TO
AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING BUT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AT RSL, GBD, SLN, AND PERHAPS HUT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...WI
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