730
FXUS63 KICT 240515
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- SPOTTY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- OFF-AND-ON SPOTTY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AMIDST A
MOIST/UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY LINGERING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCAPPED
AIRMASS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AS FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE
FLINT HILLS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS, ALTHOUGH THINKING THE GREATEST
COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR VIGOROUS AND TALL UPDRAFTS, WITH MODEST DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES SUPPORTING LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 20-25 KTS AT BEST, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND TILT, SUPPORTING ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
FURTHERMORE, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN CONCERT WITH
RELATIVELY SLOWER STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY BEFORE 10 PM OR SO. THEREAFTER, MOSTLY NON-SEVERE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD LINGER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE, SUPPORTED
BY A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE.
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING AND LAYING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
TUESDAY, THINKING TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS AND
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
AS WE LOOK AHEAD, SPOTTY OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ENTER BACK
INTO THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CULPRITS WILL BE SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH WEAK COLD FRONTS
ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH, AMIDST A CONTINUED
MOIST/UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES REMAIN POSSIBLE. STAY
TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
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