709
FXUS63 KICT 251134
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, STRONG
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE,
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FROM WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS AREA IS ALSO UNDER A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
THAT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER THIS MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. THE EXCEPTION MAYBE
PARTS OF OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHICH MAY SEE A STORM OR
TWO MAINLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
ROUGE STORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND AIRMASS IS
UNCAPPED.
BY THU MORNING, THE UPPER ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KS.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH, AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS THU WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST KS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LACKING. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL IN THE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES WILL BE IN THE
2-2.5" RANGE, WHICH WILL BE AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. SO THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
THE MAIN THEME FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL BRING MINIMAL CAPPING. THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR HIT-OR-MISS STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
BE SOME MONSOONAL ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF NM/TX PANHANDLE EACH
DAY. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS
IN A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT,
WHICH MAY BRING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. AT THE SAME
TIME, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING.
BETTER STORM CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS THE HIGHER 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
HAS ALSO LIFTED NORTHWEST. FOR TODAY, THE BETTER CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS EVENING WE COULD
SEE A STORM OR TWO NORTH OF I-70, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO FOR NOW HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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