260
FXUS63 KICT 260811
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- HIT-OR-MISS STORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS.
- STORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER SOUTHERN CA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDING ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT, AIDED BY
OUTFLOW, STRETCHES FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KS.
SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING GENERALLY WEST OF I-135
WERE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LINGERS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. BY 21Z, FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AS 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS BACK UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
STILL LOOKING FOR ML CAPE VALUES TO BE IN THE 2,000-3,000J/KG
RANGE WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH AROUND 15-20KT FORECAST. SO THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
BY FRI MORNING, WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT WILL LEAVE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED. THE SAME SETUP IS FORECAST FOR
SAT, WITH EASTERN KS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF NM/TX PANHANDLE AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MON MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
BEYOND MON, CONFIDENCE IN STORM CHANCES DECREASES. UPPER RIDGING
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL STORM CHANCES FOR TUE-WED AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WE MAINTAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH WESTERN KS AND MAY IMPACT RSL AND GBD EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND 18Z IN
CENTRAL KS AND OVERSPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP PROB30S AT ALL SITES BESIDES CNU GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING. EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY, WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK BACK UP BY MID MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
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