441
FXUS63 KICT 261132
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- HIT-OR-MISS STORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS.
- STORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER SOUTHERN CA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDING ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT, AIDED BY
OUTFLOW, STRETCHES FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KS.
SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING GENERALLY WEST OF I-135
WERE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LINGERS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. BY 21Z, FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AS 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS BACK UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
STILL LOOKING FOR ML CAPE VALUES TO BE IN THE 2,000-3,000J/KG
RANGE WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH AROUND 15-20KT FORECAST. SO THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
BY FRI MORNING, WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT WILL LEAVE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED. THE SAME SETUP IS FORECAST FOR
SAT, WITH EASTERN KS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF NM/TX PANHANDLE AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MON MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
BEYOND MON, CONFIDENCE IN STORM CHANCES DECREASES. UPPER RIDGING
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL STORM CHANCES FOR TUE-WED AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND WE MAINTAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KS BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERALLY AFTER 20Z. TAF
SITES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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