424
FXUS63 KICT 270354
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1054 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- HIT-OR-MISS STORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS.
- STORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF OUR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, THE INSTABILITY WILL REACH BETWEEN 2500-3000
J/KG IN PLACES. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
BOUNDARY, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTS A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER THE LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
HAIL THREAT. THE SLOWER MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS, ALONG
WITH 2 INCH PWATS, WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
THEN FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS THOUGH WE WILL
LACK IN ANY REAL FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING MINOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEN
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. SENDING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING
TO GENERALLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WE
COULD SEE ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT AND WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES DIP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KS (IMPACTING MAINLY THE CNU TAF SITE). COVERED THIS
THREAT WITH A PROB30. OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR LOW VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR MAINLY ICT AND CNU, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION
IN THE 06Z TAFS. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR A MENTION IN THE 06Z
TAFS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page