317
FXUS63 KICT 270717
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS LOOKING DRY THIS PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE TODAY WHERE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SHEAR ALOFT REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECTING THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR SATURDAY WITH THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY HAVING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
LOW LEVEL JET TARGETS EASTERN KANSAS. HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS THAT WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KANSAS ON MONDAY WHICH LOOKS TO SCOUR OUT SOME THE RICHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR MAINLY
SOUTHERLY KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER MORE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RECOVER FOR
THURSDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT SPOTTY HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KS (IMPACTING MAINLY THE CNU TAF SITE). COVERED THIS
THREAT WITH A PROB30. OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR LOW VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FOR MAINLY ICT AND CNU, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION
IN THE 06Z TAFS. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR A MENTION IN THE 06Z
TAFS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
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