257
FXUS63 KICT 282047
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
347 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THAT PRODUCED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAVE
DISSIPATED AND MOVED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, VERY WEAK FLOW RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
WEAK TROUGH REMAINING STATIONARY OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONGER, DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE A
SIMILAR SETUP AS THIS MORNING FOR DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAA OVERLAPS WITH A REGION OF
DEEP, RICH MOISTURE WHICH WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, PWATS WILL EASILY EXCEED THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, SO PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1-2" PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, IT WON'T
TAKE MUCH FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN TROUGH, SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS STORMS BY SUNDAY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WITH 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE AND
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND MAYBE
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8" WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2+"
PER HOUR. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WILL BE SLOW MOVING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT. SOME OF THE 12Z CAMS THIS
MORNING SUGGESTED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AND DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BE GENERALLY BE ON THE
HIGHER END OF POSSIBLE SCENARIO, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
OCCASIONAL 65-70+ MPH WIND GUST WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS
OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR DECREASE DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO STORMS WOULD LIKELY LOSE A BIT OF THEIR
INTENSITY SHOULD THEY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TIMING OF STORMS IS THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. WITH THE AXIS OF DEEP, RICH MOISTURE SHUNTED INTO OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW (AT OR UNDER 15%) AND WILL
BE LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK,
THE PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED (WELCOME TO SUMMER!) BUT GLOBAL
MODELS SOMEWHAT INDICATE A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW PERIODIC
CHANCES (AT OR UNDER 15%) FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY LIMITED
TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SE KANSAS FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE IS AGAIN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT KCNU
TOMORROW MORNING AS WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...SGS
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