664
FXUS63 KICT 291122
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND A FEW OF THEM COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LATEST ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSING LIFT OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER A BIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA CANADA/MONTANA. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOW
LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING FOCUSED INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SOUTHEAST MOVING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WHICH LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS, HOWEVER STILL EXPECT LOTS OF
TRAILING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES FROM A STOUT INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILE WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE TEMPS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
SUPPORTS DAMAGING TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT DOWNBURST WIND
POTENTIAL WITH WINDS OVER 80MPH. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
GRADUALLY LESSENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER CONCERN WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA.
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SETUP OVER KANSAS FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE HUMIDITY WILL LESSEN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS KANSAS BEHIND MONDAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS COULD BE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AND LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOWING A
FAIRLY HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING LOCATIONS EAST OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. COULD STILL SEE A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY AFFECT CNU SITE THIS MORNING, BUT
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS FOR STORMS TO IGNITE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH
DAMAGING TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
EXPECTING THE STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AT NIGHT AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR
TIMING OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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