025
FXUS63 KICT 301148
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY RISK
- DRY WEATHER WITH LESS HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL COLLIDE INTO ON-GOING ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT THINGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY A HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT GIVEN VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS
THAT IS BEING OVERTURNED BY NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
THIS MORNING, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR(LESS
HUMIDITY) TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A UPPER LEVEL
WAVE EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS TO KANSAS
AND SOME OF THEM COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING OVER KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 40
MPH THIS MORNING. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THIS LINE OF STORMS
WILL MAKE IT TO CNU OR DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE AIRPORT
HENCE ONLY A PROB30 IS IN THE CNU TAF AT THIS TIME. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS WEAKENING BUT GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL FOLLOW THE LINE OF STORMS HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL
FROM THE LIGHT RAIN. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...WI
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