859
FXUS63 KICT 011029
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LESS HUMIDITY
- STORMS COULD RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OFF AND ON
PERIODS OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY JULY 4TH THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER KANSAS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOW RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY GOOD SIGNAL BY THE MODELS OF MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION FOR THIS MOISTURE TO SPARK OFF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DESPITE SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH-IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
KANSAS ON THURSDAY AND MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WHICH COULD GIVE WAY TO ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT(JULY 4TH), THIS IS WHEN A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS A
POSSIBILITY THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOWING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER KANSAS ALONG WITH A COUPLE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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