540
FXUS63 KICT 012317
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN CA.
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAK MID/UPPER PERTURBATION NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER WEST TX. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF KS AND NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST TX.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WED, THE BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WEST TX/NM WHERE A VERY HIGH PW AIRMASS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WED INTO
WED NIGHT, BUT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES. BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN CA, WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS
FRI INTO FRI EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST, AND SETUP A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR FRI INTO FRI EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20
MPH WILL BE LIKELY, WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH.. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE FOR SOME FIREWORK DISPLAYS ON FRI/FRI EVENING. STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRI EVENING
AS THE UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS AND TRACK EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS-UP. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM FRI NIGHT
STORMS THAT MAY HELP SPARK OFF A FEW STORMS ON SAT INTO SAT
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME.
BEYOND SAT THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON.
AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER RIDING WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO
COULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR MCS ACTIVITY CLIPPING NORTHERN/EASTERN
KS, WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS RIDGING INFLUENCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO 20-25 KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD
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