013
FXUS63 KICT 030608
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
108 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOK TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.
- MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
UPPER IMPULSE REMAINS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. VERY MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT AN
EXTREMELY HIGH PW AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST TX INTO
EASTERN NM.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TONIGHT, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE OK/KS BORDER, WHERE
TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS. DID GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE
SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR THU AS
THE HIGH PW AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK NORTH. DUE TO LACK
OF SURFACE FOCUS, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.
UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA WILL START TO
LIFT NORTHEAST, AND BY THU NIGHT WILL BE PASSING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. BY 12Z FRI, WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
BE TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AIRMASS THAT IS OVER CENTRAL/WEST TX WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FOR
FRI WHICH WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO PIN-POINT WHICH AREAS WILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES. LACK OF SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR FRI WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
THE MAIN THREAT. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING OVER NORTHWEST
KS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT,
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DID NOTICE THAT THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE WIND SPEEDS FOR FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COMPARED TO THE RUNS 24 HOURS AGO.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT BY SAT, UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO SAG DOWN INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS. THIS
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH SUN, WHICH
WILL KEEP SCT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN
STORM CHANCES DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY, AS THE GFS IS STRONGER
WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE ECMWF BEING
CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS
IN CHECK UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOK TO STAY VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 90
DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...GC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page