402
FXUS63 KICT 031737
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY
- BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
- STORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH-IN THE DEEPER PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS. EARLY
MORNING ALPW ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS OK/KS BORDER. THIS COULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE
STORMS GIVEN VERY POOR WIND SHEAR ALOFT.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, STILL EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT EAST FROM THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ON FRIDAY. ONCE THIS
HAPPENS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRST DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE UPPER FORCING(ASCENT FROM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT)
WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO BUBBLE UP OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH-IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR ALOFT
REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO MATERIALIZE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING THE STORMS. A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS COULD BE SPAWNED AND WOULD FOLLOW THE NOSE
OF THAT VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. CORFIDI VECTORS FAVOR SOME SOUTHERLY
PROPAGATION EFFECTS FOR THE STORMS ESPECIALLY IF A LARGER COLD POOL
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVEN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES IT'S SLOW
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A LULL FOR
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EAST OF KANSAS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS.
HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE COULD TRY AND RECOVER OUT WEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH MODELS SHOWING A POSSIBLE MOISTURE UPSLOPE REGIME
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS STORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP IN
THE HIGH PLAINS THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST AT NIGHT WHERE IT COULD REACH
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PINPOINT TIMING AND EVOLUTION FOR
STORMS IN THIS WEAKER UPPER FLOW REGIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BEFORE DYING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING. STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER SUNRISE,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS.
SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN KS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT ICT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THESE IS NOT HIGH, SO DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE AT
HUT AND CENTRAL KS SITES AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD (PRIMARILY AFTER 12Z).
HOWEVER, WITH DISAGREEMENT IN SHORT-TERM MODELS ON INITIATION AND
LOCATION, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS AT ALL SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JWK
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