026
FXUS63 KICT 021018
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL START TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KS. IN OUR AREA, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. ONGOING STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO NORTHERN KS, LIKELY DIMINISHING BY THE
TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THESE
STORMS MAKE IT TO BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTY. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT EAST, SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE VISIBILITIES TO 4-
6 MILES BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO INITIATE STORMS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 50-70% WITH
THE BEST CHANCES WEST OF I-135. WHILE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA, RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST. PWATS IN CENTRAL TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WITH VALUES AROUND 1.30". GIVEN
20-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS EXPECTED AND DCAPE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 1200 J/KG, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS WE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. CHANCES WILL REDUCE TO
AROUND 30% DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT STORMS. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
HELP TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN PLACE, THOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP. WITH
AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST, IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY AND BEYOND... THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF FOR MID-LVL RIDGING TO INCREASE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA MOSTLY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THICKNESS WILL START TO
INCREASE AS WE MOVE TOWARDS MID WEEK WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE.
THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND IN OUR AREA COMBINED WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 90S BY MID-WEEK, RETURNING CLOSER
TO NORMAL. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK RIPPLES CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE AXIS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SMOKE FROM CANADA FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MINOR LOWERING OF
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
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