976
FXUS63 KICT 022336
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- GRADUAL WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A VIGOROUS, BUT FLAT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS QUICKLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, AND CONGEAL INTO
AN MCS THAT PROGRESSES ACROSS KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THERE ARE
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH HOW FAR EAST THIS AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL SET UP. CURRENTLY, SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR WITH A FAIRLY
SHARP CUTOFF IN INSTABILITY EAST OF I-135. HOWEVER, STRONGER
SUPPORT FOR MCS MAINTENANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES WHERE THE LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THIS REGION. THUS,
DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY, ANY STORMS THAT SURVIVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM
THAT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. INSTABILITY AROUND 1000-
1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE'S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE A STORM OR TWO COULD BE
SURFACE-BASED SUNDAY EVENING, AND THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OUTCOMES
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AFTER SUNDAY EVENING, A LOBE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CUTOFF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
BUT A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS SPARSE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...
AS MANY HAVE PROBABLY NOTICED, THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE FELT
MORE LIKE OCTOBER THAN AUGUST, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S, AND THIS MILD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THIS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES
UP BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL GENERALLY
PUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS LATER TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE 00Z TAFS, ONLY FOCUSED ON
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACTIVITY WITH PROB30S. FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES, WE WILL FOCUS ON SUNDAY DAYTIME CHANCES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK
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