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FXUS63 KICT 031719
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
CURRENTLY, AN MCS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IS SLOWLY LOSING STEAM AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
RUN OF THE MILL THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK
CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH
ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 WITH THE BEST CHANCES MORE CONFINED
TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ACT TO SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS WELL AS REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE
LOOK TO BE A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THAT JUST GRAZE THE
REGION. THESE IMPULSES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEND SOME BRIEF RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. TO THIS POINT, THEY'VE YET TO IMPACT SLN
OR ICT AND THE EXPECTATION IS THESE WON'T OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
HAVE OPTED FOR A PROB30 MENTION FROM 22-03Z AT GBD, HUT, AND
ICT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF
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