015
FXUS63 KICT 041713
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD START TO THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF DECAYING
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A REMNANT MCV EXITING THE AREA TO
THE EAST. FOR TODAY, THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST LEADING TO GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST. WHILE POPS ARE NON-ZERO, THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SYNOPTIC FORCING. SO
DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR, IT'S GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG, NOR WILL IT BE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. SO WHILE WE ARE ANTICIPATING A WARMUP OVER THE COMING DAYS, AN
EXTENSIVE HEAT WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, WITH A FEW
90S CREEPING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HOTTEST DAYS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK TOPPING
OUT AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK. WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION, PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD DIP INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACT TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWEST. IF THIS
HAPPENS, WOULD COULD SEE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH INTO THE STATE
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
LARGELY-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
PESKY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE STUCK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL KS, IMPACTING GBD, RSL, AND SLN AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY,
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TEMPORARILY
PROMOTE MVFR AT ICT AND HUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, SO
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, LARGELY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONGSIDE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-7 KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK
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