104
FXUS63 KICT 041928
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH A WARM-UP
STARTING WEDNESDAY.
- MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALSO
HAVE AN MCV MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST
IA. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OVER EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
EAST. FOR TUE INTO WED, UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL START A
WARM-UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE FOR
WED. FOR NOW WE ARE NOT RUNNING WITH ANY POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A STORM OR TWO
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AS WE KEEP A TIGHT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
BY THU MORNING, UPPER RIDGE WILL SPAN ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EXTEND BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST AND PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING AND WILL BRING INCREASED
STORM CHANCES. PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVING WE ARE LOOKING FOR A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH THU AND FRI, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE WEST OF I- 135. ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS,
WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE COMMON FOR BOTH WED
AND THU.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
LARGELY-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
PESKY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE STUCK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL KS, IMPACTING GBD, RSL, AND SLN AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY,
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD TEMPORARILY
PROMOTE MVFR AT ICT AND HUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, SO
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, LARGELY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALONGSIDE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-7 KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
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