411
FXUS63 KICT 051957
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER TEMPS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WITH 100+ HEAT INDICES LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- WEAK COLD FRONT STILL SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASED STORM CHANCES ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND SPANS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MT.
LEE TROUGHING REMAINS AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH EASTERN CO.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM THROUGH WED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. JUST LIKE EARLY
THIS MORNING, LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP EARLY WED MORNING AND
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT MAY BRING A STORM OR TWO
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO FORECAST, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. 850MB TEMPS BY WED AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
25-30C RANGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN FLANK, AND WITH GOOD MIXING,
SHOULD EASILY GIVE US HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. SAME
SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, WITH TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES FOR BOTH WED AND ESPECIALLY
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.
BY THU EVENING, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES EAST, A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 100-105 RANGE. IT'S POSSIBLE A HEAT ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED FOR FRI AFTERNOON IF THESE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO NORTHERN KS BY SAT EVENING
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN-
SUN EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH FOR MONDAY. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS, FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
INCREASED STORM CHANCES FOR THE SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME FRAME.
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. A LAYER OF MID CLOUD IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LEFTOVER FROM A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO RAMP UP BY
TOMORROW MORNING MAKING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KCNU AND POSSIBLY KICT. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE KICT
WIND WITH LATER ISSUANCE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...SGS
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